We can't guarantee a response, per se, but we can say how confident we are that these average bachelors and bachelorettes will receive at least one response given the number of messages they send.
We know, from the chart above, that a woman who sends a message to a man her own age has a 17.5% likelihood of receiving a response to that message.
So, we can see that women are much more selective than men when it comes to responding to messages.
To the left, -10 means the sender was 10 years younger, on the right, the sender was 10 years older, with zero indicating that the sender and the recipient are the same age.
Here are the two plots for men responding to messages from women (blue) and women responding to messages from men (red).
But for folks in the dating game, how is this information actually usable?
Well, let's find out how many messages the average man will have to send to a woman his own age in order to guarantee various levels of response, and vice versa.
An average man who sends 18 messages to women his own age can be 50% certain he'll receive at least one response.
For women, they need to send only 5 messages to be 50% certain they'll get a response.
Looking at higher confidence levels, if a woman wants to be 90% certain she'll receive a response from a man her own age, she'll have to send 13 messages. Finally, to be 99% certain she'll receive a response, a woman must send 25 messages to men her own age. This leads us to believe that one potential cause of the disparity between the male response rate and female response rate is the system itself.
We know that a man who sends a message to a woman his own age has a 4% likelihood of receiving a response to that message.
Extrapolating from there, here's how confident men and women can be that they will receive a response given the number of messages they send Fascinating.